Fiscal Forecast Errors in Nigeria
We evaluate fiscal forecast errors in Nigeria’s budget process The forecast error is measured as the difference between budget projections and outturn. We use budget implementation reports published by the Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning Evaluate forecast errors for major budget items: Oil/Non-oil revenues, expenditures, fiscal deficit. We also look at the narrative of budget implementation reports to identify possible cause of the errors
Forecast errors: Total Revenues


Forecast errors: Oil Revenues


Revenue forecast errors are driven by optimistic oil revenue projections
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With the exception of the pandemic, oil revenues are always overestimated
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Oil revenue forecast errors average 1.1 percent of GDP and 61 percent of total revenues
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